After the organized team activities a few days ago, Ronnie Brown stated that he thought he was an elite running back. Referring to the other to players in the league, Brown said, “You got to have confidence on this level and, you know, if I didn't, I wouldn't want to be playing this game. So, obviously, when their names are brought up I want my name to be in that same group.” His comments were immediately criticized in the South Florida media and around the country. With his total number of rushing yards per year, many said he should not be comparing himself to the elite runners in the league today.

Disparaging Ronnie in South Florida is not new. He has been compared to Ricky Williams, whom he shared snaps with 3 out 4 of his years in the league, and found wanting. Nick Saban [Dolfans – turn your head and spit when you read that] was criticized because Saban drafted Brown 2nd overall by the Dolphins. Saban wanted a versatile running back that was good at running between the tackles, catching passes, and blocking and receiving. That’s Ronnie.

But the question is, “Is he elite now?”, not “Will he be elite this coming season?” In my opinion, the stats suggest he is but it is hard to see because, except for 2007, he has shared time with Ricky Williams. And when you have Ricky on the team, it is hard to let him sit on the bench. Brown is no Adrian Peterson, but he deserves mention with the top backs today.

Brown is a big, physical back, just like Parcells likes his players, but he doesn't have that microburst of acceleration that other running backs use to elude tacklers. Can Ronnie outrun entire defenses when he breaks one open? The evidence says no. He runs more like a Mack truck - or FreightLiner for you kids - than a jackrabbit when he gets past the line. But those are not results. So instead of judging Ronnie on 'style' points like an Olympic ice skating judge and other things that smell pretty, he is judged below on his overall performance.

The tables below contain yearly stats for rushing and receiving from the last two years for selected running backs and compares them to Ronnie Brown. Because people have a tendency to only look at total yardage for running backs, the data is leveled for the players so that all backs got equal carries. That way the total yards are comparable. The differences between players are their abilities and how the team supports the run. While a good offensive line can help the back, the assumption is that the players Ronnie Brown is compared to have O-Lines at least as good as the Dolphins had the last two years. That seems to be a safe assumption.

The rushing stats are made comparable to each other by adjusting the stats to 20 carries per game over the last 2 years. If a back carried more than 640 [=20*16*2] times, as Clinton Portis did in 2007-8 and Ricky Williams did in 2002-3, then the stats were adjusted proportionaly down. If rusher played in less than 32 games, as Ronnie Brown and Adrian Peterson did, then the stats were adjusted up. For the receiving stats, if a player played in less than 32 games, the stats were adjusted up.

The bottom line of this article is to answer the following questions:

1] How many total rushing yards, long runs, fumbles, etc., would a running back have if he carried the ball exactly 20 times per game, for a full 16 game year? This adjusts for over and under-utilization of the backs and also for games missed due to injury.

2] How many total receiving yards, long runs, fumbles, etc., would a running back have if he played a full 16 game year? This adjusts for games missed due to injury.

3] How many total rushing and receiving yards would the back have over the year? and

4] Using the above stats, how does Ronnie Brown compare to other top backs from last year?

Below are three tables comparing different rushers by their adjusted running, receiving and total running+receiving stats.
Note that:
   1] Ricky Williams did not play in the NFL in 2007 [except for 1 play] so only his 2008 stats are included.
   2] Michael Turner was a backup to LT in 2007, so only his 2008 stats are included.
   3] Ricky Williams’ 2002-3 stats are also included as they are his best years.
   4] Ronnie Brown’s 2007-only stats are included so you can see the influence a good half year had on his stats.

RUSHING STATS ADJUSTED TO 20 CARRIES/GAME

Looking at the above tables, I would say that Ronnie Brown is at the bottom of the “elite” running backs, but still elite. His ability to catch the ball means he can be relied on to actually hold on to it when thrown to, and allows him to be used in the Wildcat packages. He wouldn’t be much use for the Wildcat if he couldn’t catch a shotgun snap. His size and strength help him get first downs on running plays and run over the secondary when thrown the ball. One area Brown is not elite is the long run, an area that Coach Sparano has challenged him to improve this year.

2007 was a good year for Ronnie Brown. Cam Cameron was riding his back like he rode LaDainian Tomlinson’s in San Diego. Ronnie led the league in total yards deom the line of scrimmage over all other rushers and passers before getting injured in the 7th game, against New England. While this may cause some to question Ronnie’s durability, it is hard to fault him for getting injured when blocked illegally while trying to tackle a defender who was returning his quarterback’s interception. As a result, Brown’s numbers are skewed because his 2007 totals were more than doubled since he only played in 7 games that year. But then his 2008 numbers are skewed down because he still felt the lingering effects of the injury most of the season. And also because the Dolphin offensive line could not consistently get a good push up the middle, necessitating the use of the wildcat package to help the run game.

In case you are wondering how Ronnie compared to others during his first two years in the league, here are some quick stats comparing him to Ricky William's and LaDainian Tomlinson's first two years in the league: Ronnie averaged 4.3 yards rushing, LT 4.1 and Ricky 3.8 yards. Receptions, Ronnie averaged 7.8 yards, LT 6.2 and Ricky 8.2 yards. Ronnie had 11 runs over 20 yards, and 3 over 40. Ricky had 7 over 20 and none over 40. LT shined in long runs with 19 over 20 yards and 3 over 40 yards. Ronnie also had 5 receptions over 20 yards compared to 3 for LT and Ricky. Ronnie's longest run was 65 yards compared to 76 for LT and 36 for Ricky. In fact, Ricky never had a run longer than Ronnie. If Ronnie had as many rushes and catches as LT his 1st 2 years, he would have had more yards rushing and receiving than LT. compared to them, I think Ronnie has done OK his first 2 years.

This year could be an elite year for Brown. Miami has a new center in Jake Grove, brought in to improve the run game. He also has had a year to recover from an ACL injury and is in great physical condition. Coach Sparano reports, ”As far as shape goes, he's outstanding right now. That sounds like a company line, but I mean it. I just watched film a little while ago, and watching the tape, he makes this catch on the sideline today, extends for the ball, and ends up really kind of hyper extending both legs to do this. No sign of any of those hesitations, any of those things that he went through a year ago. In the weight room the guy is super right now, he weighs 230 pounds, he's running better, he is stronger, so all of those things from a progress standpoint I see as positives."

How Brown will be used this season is a good question. If I were Coach Sparano, I would make sure Ronnie got at least 18 carries per game. And put him in as the back on passing plays. He can block and/or fade outside to catch the ball when no receiver is open. I would make Ricky Williams sit to ensure Brown got his carries. Ricky may not mind - he's getting older and probably tired of being beat up every week. Ronnie is still young and likes to run over defenders. You don't have to worry about overusing him. As The Phinsider explains, Ronnie has a lot of touches left in his career.

But Ricky will probably get 10 carries a game and Pennington will throw to his tight ends more than Ronnie. Plus the Dolphins extended the fullback Polite's contract, a short yardage player who got a first down 65% of the time he was given the ball last year. But next year is a contract year for Ronnie, so he will be asking for the ball all the time. If he gets it, I expect him to have 1,500 yards rushing and 300-400 yards receiving. Plus whatever he does from the Wildcat formations. Then he can lay a solid claim on the 'elite' description.